2003-01-26 -

Pre-Superbown Thoughts

A few thoughts about the Superbowl:

I'm rooting for the Raiders but I expect Tampa to win. At this level of play I just have more faith in a top defense. You rarely see a really good defense choke up in a tight spot or suddenly fall apart for no apparent reason. I've seen offenses do both. But I see at least two ways Oakland could pull it off.

First, they have Charles Woodson. His injuries will keep him from making all the cuts he normally could in coverage, and they'll burn him at least once. But he also does a mean cornerback blitz, and even injured, I think he's more agile than Brad Johnson. Remember that during the Jets game, a Woodson hit put Wayne Chrebet out of the game, and Chrebet isn't nearly the wimp that Johnson is. Johnson likes to change into clean socks in the middle of the game, for god's sake. If Woodson manages to get through unblocked and put a signature hit on Johnson, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Shawn King thereafter. The Raiders can stop King.

Second, the Raiders have the potential to go right in to the teeth of the Bucs defense and make it stick. Fine, the Bucs have one of the all-time great pass defenses. How often have they tried to stop a quarterback who went 34 for 38 earlier in the season, or who, but for a bad call by the ref, would own the NFL record for consecutive completetions? Have they had to cover a receiver set like Rice, Brown, Porter, Garner, and Jolly? I say the Raiders have the potential to make the pass stick even against Tampa. The problem is that they run a "dink and dunk" offense. To get into the end zone, they have to beat that Tampa defense eight or ten times, and never blow two plays in a row. They can do that, but the odds say they won't. "Big time players make big time plays in big time games", the saying goes, and the Raiders offense is more likely to get killed by a big play than to score off one.

But I still love the Raiders, in both their old "bad boy" and new "geriatric ice man" incarnations, and I hope they find a way to get it done.

My pessimistic prediction: Bucs 24, Raiders 17.

Optimistic prediction: Raiders 27, Bucs 10.

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